Did you see a bull market coming in 2023?
Probably not, if you were tuned into the mainstream media.
The bobble heads on TV love nothing more than some doom and gloom to keep folks fixed to their screens.
But here we are…
The common definition of a bull market is a 20% rally from a low.
The S&P 500 is up 27% after a 25% plunge between January and October.
So, that’s a bull market… and then some.
Tech stocks are doing even better. The Nasdaq 100 is packed with mega-cap tech stocks, including Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta. It’s up 41% from its October 2022 low.
This will have shocked most investors…
You may be one of them…
This year, three regional U.S. banks have collapsed after the worst bank runs since the 1930s.
The Fed has jacked up interest rates three times.
And you can’t turn on the TV… or go on social media… without hearing about a looming recession.
But for folks who’ve been following our cycles trading expert, Phil Anderson, the surge in stocks won’t come as a surprise.
In an interview I did with him in April, he said we were entering the most bullish phase of market cycle he tracks.
Since then, he’s been pounding the table on why a “melt-up” is coming in stocks, real estate, and more speculative assets…
…which is why I’m hoping you’re paying attention.
Phil’s contrarian forecast has been right so far. He’s now predicting one of the most bullish phases for the stock market in decades. That means the next two years will be make or break for your retirement.
Phil is arguably the world’s greatest economic forecaster…
He’s predicted every major market turning point over his 34-year career. These include…
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The housing crash in the early 1990s
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The dot-com crash in 2000
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The bull market in stocks from 2003–2007
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The housing crash in 2007 and the global financial crisis (“GFC”)
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The bottom in stocks in March 2009 after the GFC
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The bull market in stocks in the 2010s
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The pandemic-induced crash in early 2020
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The selloff in 2022
Only Phil doesn’t call what he does forecasting. He calls it “remembering the future.”
Mainstream forecasters try to predict market moves based on jobs data… manufacturing surveys… and whatever the bond market is signaling about the economy.
They’re looking ahead, in other words. And they’re trying to see what’s coming next.
But Phil doesn’t just look ahead. He also looks back. He’s a keen student of market history. And he makes his predictions based off an 18.6-year cycle markets have followed for hundreds of years.
That’s the time it takes for one boom-bust cycle…
Phil will be sharing all the details at his event tonight. (Secure your spot here with a click.) It keys off research from an obscure British economist called Fred Harrison.
In his book The Power in the Land, Harrison showed this was average time for a full boom-bust cycle in the British real estate market.
Harrison also showed how this cycle drove the stock market. And thanks to that research, he was one of the first people to predict the 2008 global financial crisis.
In 2005, he warned that the next property market “tipping point” was due at end of 2007 or early 2008. And he warned that the only way prices could return to affordable levels was a “slump or recession.”
Phil then wrote his own book about this cycle, The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking. And he found it also goes back hundreds of years in the U.S.
You can see the cycle play out in this chart from Phil’s book…
It’s of U.S. public land sales from 1800 to 1923.
You can see the cycles in action…
In 1818, land sales in the U.S. peaked. An economic downturn followed. Sales peaked again in 1836 with a depression following. The next peak was in 1854. And again, a depression followed.
After 1923, there wasn’t much public land left to sell. But what we’ve seen is that for the first 144 years of real estate enclosure in the U.S., land sales peaked every 18 years.
There’s a lot more evidence of the cycle at work in Phil’s book. For today, what you need to know is it repeats through history. It also affects the stock market. Here’s Phil with more on that…
Most people either forecast the real estate market or the stock market. But I tell my subscribers that real estate investors need to understand the stock market… and stock market investors need to understand the real estate market. They’re closely related.
At the bottom of 18.6-year cycle, the stock market leads the way into the next upcycle. And at the top of the cycle – which we’ll shift into over the next couple of years – the real estate market peaks first.
So, if you’re a stock investor, you should be watching land prices and the prices of stocks that operate in the real estate business.
If we go back to the peak of the stock market in 2007, the homebuilders and the land developers warned it was coming. They peaked in 2005. That was a hint for stock market investors to get more defensive with their portfolios.
But we’re not there yet. Despite all the warnings this year about a collapse in the real estate market due to higher mortgage rates, that hasn’t happened.
Phil calls the phase we’re in now the “Eleventh Hour”…
Take a look at the table below that he put together for his subscribers. It shows the different phases of the 18.6-year cycle.
Here’s how he described the second half of the cycle – the Eleventh Hour – in a Q&A I shared with you on April 21…
Despite the doom and gloom in the press, this is one of the best times during the cycle to be an investor. It is the “growth at all costs” stage. So, I expect markets will turn upward from here.
This is great news for the investors who understand these cycles. Put simply, we have been granted more time to make money.
And here’s how he put it in these pages on May 5…
As the financial media makes a 180-degree turn on the recession narrative, investors will start to see that the world is in better shape than they thought.
The happier narrative will trickle down to government offices, boardrooms, and trading floors.
Then the media will amplify and spread this new narrative.
Then we’ll get even happier news… more “up” days in the market… more wild speculation. It will be like late 2021 all over again.
Phil’s forecast is playing out…
May was a blowout month for tech stocks. The Nasdaq 100 shot up 7.6%.
We also got wild speculation.
On May 25, shares in AI chipmaker Nvidia jumped 24% on a bullish earnings forecast. This added $184 billion to its market value.
That’s enough to buy all the outstanding shares in Walt Disney, Wells Fargo, or Verizon.
And if he continues to be right, stocks are headed even higher. Phil again…
Now, there are a lot of people around who are still forecasting bearish opinions, some still forecasting the collapse of the world.
And forecasting global collapse is an easy sell. A lot of people just like to hear it. They think things are going to hell. And they invest accordingly. But I’m here to tell you this is the furthest thing from the truth. It’s just not going to happen.
If you think markets are going to collapse from here, you’re on the wrong tram… or train… or plane. We’re in for another crazy ride.
I’ll have more for you from Phil in tomorrow’s Cut…
Including more on how to play the melt-up phase of the cycle.
Meantime, if you followed Phil’s advice and stayed bullish this year, kudos. You’ve caught the big upswing in the market.
And if you were caught off guard by the new bull market, don’t worry. Phil has you covered…
Tonight at 8 p.m. ET, he’s going live with a new event all about how to understand the cycle he tracks… and how to profit from the Eleventh Hour phase we’re in now.
He’ll reveal how we won’t hit the top of the cycle until mid-decade… and how there’s never been a crash at this stage in more than 200 years of this cycle.
Folks who tuned into Phil’s first-ever appearance in the U.S. media three months ago and joined him as a subscriber have already booked a 51% win.
And if Phil is right about his Eleventh Hour call, that’s only the start of much more powerful stock market rally.
So, make sure you go right here to reserve your spot. We’ll automatically register you for this free event.
Regards,
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Chris Lowe
Editor, The Daily Cut
P.S. To further prepare you for the event, Phil is offering Daily Cut readers an Eleventh Hour VIP Pack.
It’s a series of three reports that gives you all the background you need to follow along when you join him for the Eleventh Hour event.
It shows how Phil has given his readers the knowledge and ability to forecast market moves themselves… proof of his stock-picking track record during prior Eleventh Hour periods… and a cheat sheet for profiting this time around.
All you have to do is upgrade to VIP – which is easy and free. Upgrade right here.