Chris’ note: If you’re like most folks, you probably think a recession is on its way. You may even think we’re already in one. But according to the newest member of the Legacy Research team, that’s a false narrative.
Phil Anderson is arguably the greatest living economic forecaster. That’s thanks to a hidden 18.6-year cycle he uses to predict turning points in markets. It’s allowed him to call every major turn over the past 30 years.
Since the start of 2023, Phil has been showing his subscribers why the doom and gloom in the media over a recession is overdone. In fact, he believes we’re in the most bullish part of the boom-bust cycle. And now even folks in the mainstream are coming around to his point of view…
Do you feel it?
The mainstream media is changing its story.
Before, it was all about an imminent recession. Everybody was sure it was coming. The question wasn’t whether it would happen… But how bad would it be?
Fed chairman Jerome “Jay” Powell hinted at it with his typical ambiguity…
“Certainly a possibility” – you’ve got to love that. You can “predict” almost any event using this bit of Fedspeak.
Others in the media were more direct…
Well, these strategists haven’t gotten full confirmation of their worldview.
I’ve been saying this for a while now: We won’t see a real recession any time soon.
This is what my 18.6-year cycle suggests. As my regular readers will know, that’s the average length of each boom-bust cycle. And it’s helped me navigate the markets and invest for decades.
For instance, here’s what I wrote over at my Cycles Trading With Phil Anderson e-letter in February…
Even if there is a slight downturn, there is nothing in my research or incoming data that suggests a structural weakness in the economy.
On the contrary, my 18.6-year cycle says the global economy will do well in the near term.
The cycle isn’t over… and it will not be for years.
Watch the media change the narrative this year from “imminent disaster” to “a soft landing is possible” to “sometime in the future, we will have a recession, but for now, it’s all good.”
You may disagree. But I see data points everywhere proving I’m right.
Record Low Unemployment
For instance, in March, the jobless rate in the U.S. hit 3.5%. This is close to an all-time low.
And in many states, unemployment reached record lows in March.
Pink-shaded states have record low unemployment (Source: Bloomberg)
This is despite the doom and gloom the mainstream media is spreading about the economy… and waves of layoffs in the tech sector.
Speaking of which…
Meta – the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp – just reported better-than-expected revenue guidance and sales growth for the first time in three quarters.
Meantime, Microsoft beat analyst estimates on both sales and profit.
Alphabet, Google’s parent company, also beat earnings estimates and announced a $70 billion stock buyback. (It will use that cash to buy back its own shares and cancel them. This raises the value of each remaining share.)
And tech isn’t the only sector that has been delivering…
Mega banks JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo reported solid financial results.
PNC Bank, a smaller U.S. bank, posted a 19% annual profit jump over the previous year.
Notably, it grew its deposit base despite the general market panic following Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse and the trouble at San Francisco-based regional bank First Republic Bank.
And despite predictions from Wall Street analysts that it would see a drop in profits, Bank of America reported a 15% growth in profits compared to the same quarter of 2022.
Here’s what bank’s CEO, Brian Moynihan, said on the earnings call…
The forecast is for a recession in the second half of the year, but we don’t see consumer activity slowing to a pace that indicates that. Everything points to a mild recession, but we will see what happens.
Moynihan is being cautious… and I get that. But if you read between the lines and shut out the noise, his insight is overwhelmingly positive.
And you don’t have to just take my… or Moynihan’s… word for it. Trade is also booming…
Wave of Demand
Demand for industrial space in the U.S. is outpacing supply. This is true across the country.
As a result, the average rent for in-place leases grew almost 7% nationwide compared to last year.
And new lease premiums are the highest in port markets.
I predicted this trend back in January. I wrote…
[Y]ou need warehouses.
And not just any warehouse will do…
The ones located close to marine ports are some of the most prized assets.
Every mile saved on transporting containers from a port to a warehouse saves money.
Transportation, after all, amounts to 45% to 70% of total logistics costs.
As a result, there’s a frenzy in the warehouse market. Everybody wants access to the warehouses located near ports.
This wave of demand tells me that global trade is booming. It’s flourishing.
Rent growth in ports and adjacent areas has been staggering.
Rents were up 15.6% in the Inland Empire region of Southern California, 11.6% in Los Angeles, and 10.7% in Boston. The list goes on. And the pattern is clear: Trade is doing well.
The economy at large is doing well, too. The industrial vacancy rate is just 3.9%, down 10 basis points over last month.
And vacancy rates are going down, too, even though more than 1 billion square feet of new stock has been added over the last 2.5 years.
Crash Is “Impossible” Right Now
Unemployment is close to record lows. Big banks and the tech sector have been delivering excellent quarterly earnings. And trade is booming.
Those are not indicators of a coming recession.
And my 18.6-year real estate cycle – which has helped me navigate global markets for decades – backs this up.
I’m so confident there’s no imminent crash coming, I recently went on record saying that a crash this year is “impossible.”
Quite the contrary, this is the most bullish part of my 18.6-year cycle.
To learn more about it… and how you can use it to build (or rebuild) your wealth, check it out here.
And next time you hear someone in the mainstream press claiming we’re right around the corner from a recession, don’t worry. The data tells a different story.
Editor, Cycles Trading With Phil Anderson
P.S. I know with all the mainstream media headlines screaming “recession,” it can be hard to see past the panic.
But it’s like I said above, not only do I think a crash is impossible this year… this is actually one of the best times in the 18.6-year cycle to be an investor. It’s the “growth at all costs” stage that I call the Eleventh Hour.
The last time I saw an Eleventh Hour moment was 20 years ago. Back then I went nine for nine on the trades I recommended with an average peak gain of 485%.
These kinds of opportunities can be transformational for your wealth… if you know what to watch for, and if you’re prepared.
That’s why I did an exclusive interview with Daily Cut editor Chris Lowe. There, I shared my insights on the 18.6-year cycle… plus the chance to access a special report with my top three plays for the Eleventh Hour period we’re in today.
Go here to access it.