Chris’ note: He may be the greatest economic forecaster alive…
Phil Anderson isn’t a household name. But he’s called every major market turn going back 34 years. That’s when he discovered a hidden cycle that reveals, in advance, when booms and busts will happen.
Phil says the real estate market, economy, and stock market all move through a series of predictable peaks and troughs. And by trading these cycles, he says you can make enough money to retire rich.
That’s exactly what Phil did in his 40s. He now flies around the world exclusively in first class. And he spends time between homes in London, Melbourne, Jakarta, and the French countryside.
And as you’ll hear from him today, we’re now in the most bullish phase of the cycle for stocks. It’s what Phil calls the Eleventh Hour. And making the right moves now could make or break your retirement.
On November 6, 2007, the S&P 500 closed at 1,520 points.
One month earlier, the blue-chip index had closed at a record high of 1,565 points.
It would take it nearly six years to get back to that level.
In between, the stock market… and the economy… would suffer the devastating collapse we now know as the 2008 financial crisis.
Who saw it coming?
I did.
On November 6, 2007, I published the following warning…
The market is now beginning to tell us what it is going to do in 2009. At this early stage, a low in early March would not surprise, then a 180-day run into early September.
The S&P 500 hit a low on March 9, 2009. By September, it was 58% higher.
As you’ll see today, the reason I was able to predict the March 2009 low has nothing to do with price-to-earnings ratios… economic reports… or other mainstream forecasting tools.
It had to do with the 18.6-year cycle I’ve been studying for more than three decades.
Boom to Bust… And Back Again
Imagine you could clearly see what will happen in the U.S. housing and stock markets over the next few years.
You’d know exactly the right time to buy a house, apartment, or investment property. You’d know the ideal time to buy and sell your stocks. You’d even have the confidence to invest when most people are running scared.
It’s hard to believe. But by tracking this cycle, you can.
I wrote about it in my 2009 book, The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking.
Keying off research done by a British economist named Fred Harrison, I found it takes the real estate market 18.6 years to go through one full boom-bust cycle.
Here’s a quick summary…
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Land is a limited resource. So as the economy grows… and demand rises… it drives up the price of land.
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As land prices rise, investors and speculators pile in. This causes land prices to rise even higher. And it results in a bubble.
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As prices rise, banks provide credit to investors, developers, and homebuyers in greater quantities, because the price of the collateral (the land they’re lending against) is rising.
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Eventually, the land price bubble gets out of hand and exceeds the economy’s capacity to support it. Land prices plummet. This leads to a recession or depression.
Now, 18.6 years is an average. But the cycle has never been shorter than 17 years, never longer than 21.
The good news is that once you understand this cycle, you can forecast it.
And this cycle affects the stock market, too.
History Moves in Patterns
All economic activity depends on land. It’s the foundation the rest of the economy sits upon.
At the top of the cycle, the real estate market peaks first. Then stocks head lower.
This is what we saw in 2007 and 2008. First, house prices fell… then stocks followed.
And at bottom of the cycle, the stock market that leads the way into the next up cycle.
So, the low I predicted in March 2009 was a signal that the housing market would soon turn higher again.
Tracking this cycle has helped me predict every major market move since I discovered it 34 years ago. They include…
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The housing crash in the early 1990s
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The dot-com crash in 2000–2002
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The bull market in stocks from 2003–2008
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The housing crash in 2007 and the global financial crisis (“GFC”)
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The bottom in stocks in March 2009 after the GFC
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The bull market in stocks in the 2010s
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The pandemic-induced crash in early 2020
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The selloff in 2022
You’ll often hear people say something that happens in the markets is unprecedented.
But that’s not true.
If you look back at history, there are always precedents… patterns even.
Rising Rates = Rising House Prices
For instance, since 1955, the Fed has gone through 11 rate hiking cycles.
Mainstream economists will tell you that’s bad news for house prices because higher interest rates mean higher mortgage rates.
But every time, U.S. house prices went up, not down.
Take the rate hiking cycle of the late 1970s. Between 1975 and 1979, the Fed raised its target interest rate from 7% to 20%. The mortgage rate went from 8% to about 16%. The inflation rate climbed to 15%.
But the Case Shiller Home Price Nominal Index, which tracks house prices in the U.S., went up from 27 to 43 points.
Look at other times of rising interest rates, you’ll also see rising house prices.
Not surprising. When you’ve got inflation, where’s one of the best places to put your money?
Housing…
We’re Years Away From a Peak in Stocks
That’s important. Because as I said above, the real estate market peaks before the stock market.
A lot of mainstream commentators believed the real estate market would tank as the Fed began raising rates last March. But that hasn’t happened.
And it’s not going to happen for another couple of years.
My research shows that we won’t see the top of this cycle until 2025–2026.
Before that we’ll go through the last stage of the cycle – an extremely bullish phase I call the Eleventh Hour.
Just about everyone sees more pain ahead for the stock market. You may be one of them. But the cycle shows we’re on the cusp of a major rally… one that will take most folks by surprise.
That’s why I’m holding a special event called The Eleventh Hour – Last Chance.
I’ll show you what to expect during the Eleventh Hour… pass on the knowledge you need to forecast market moves… and give details on my top three stocks to buy now.
To make sure you don’t miss out, go here to automatically RSVP.
I’ve spent my 34-year career studying this cycle. And I want to help you make the right moves to profit from the rally that’s coming.
Regards,
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Phil Anderson
Editor, Cycles Trading With Phil Anderson
P.S. To prepare you for the event, I want to give you the Eleventh Hour VIP Pack.
It’s a series of three reports that give you the background you need to follow along when you join me for the Eleventh Hour event.
All you have to do is upgrade to VIP – which is easy and free. You can do that right here.