Chris’ note: He may be the greatest economic forecaster alive…

Phil Anderson isn’t a household name. But he’s predicted every major market turn going back 34 years. That’s when he discovered a hidden cycle that reveals, in advance, when booms and busts will happen.

Phil says the real estate market, the economy, and stock markets move through a series of peaks and troughs… like clockwork. And by trading these cycles, he says you can make enough money to retire rich.

That’s exactly what Phil did in his 40s. He now flies around the world exclusively in first class. And he spends time between homes in London, Melbourne, Jakarta, and the French countryside.

Phil doesn’t usually seek the limelight. But we were so impressed by his insights we persuaded him to share them with you and your fellow readers.

So, look out for more about Phil and his predictions in the coming days and weeks.

In today’s insight, he reveals why mainstream economists get it so wrong… the hidden cycle that drives the economy… and why last month marked a bottom for stocks.

I remember when I gave up on mainstream economics…

I’ve found economics fascinating since I was a kid. I remember cutting out newspaper articles about an economic downturn in Australia, where I’m from, when I was 12 years old.

But when I took some economics classes at university, I realized my professors didn’t have a clue.

For instance, they said you can’t have high inflation and high unemployment at the same time.

The theory is known as the Phillips curve, named after economist William Phillips. It states that inflation and unemployment are always a tradeoff. A country can have one or the other, but never both.

The only problem… It isn’t true.

This was during the late 1970s and early 1980s. So, when I walked down the street, I could see with my own eyes that it wasn’t true.

The world was suffering from high unemployment and high inflation. If you were around back then, you’ll know what I’m talking about.

When I asked my professors why this was, they just repeated that high inflation and high unemployment couldn’t exist at the same time. That’s what their theory told them. And they were sticking with it, despite the evidence to the contrary.

They pulled an ostrich, in other words.

Their economic models couldn’t explain what was going on. So, they buried their heads in the sand.

Radical Decision

That’s when I made what some folks may call a radical decision.

I decided I was going to travel the world and explore ideas outside the mainstream.

So, I spent 20 months backpacking.

Starting in Europe, a mate and I walked, hitched, drove, took trains, and donkeyed our way from Switzerland, through Russia, to Beijing, then back eastward to Tibet. From there, I went to Nepal and then India.

What I learned is that people are the same worldwide. We all want a house on some land where can raise kids without interference from government.

That led me to the revelation that economics has more to do with land than anything else.

No mainstream economist thinks this way. But let me show you what I mean…

The Future Is Not Unknowable

It’s illustrated perfectly in a chart I shared in my book, The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking.

It’s of public land sales from 1800 to 1923.


You can see the cycles in action…

In 1818, land sales in the U.S. peaked. An economic downturn followed. In 1836, sales peaked again. A depression followed. The next peak was 1854. Again, a depression followed.

After 1923, there wasn’t much public land left to sell. But what we’ve seen is that for the first 144 years of real estate enclosure in the U.S., land sales peaked every 18 years.

And my research shows this has continued to the present.

Here’s what’s important for us as investors… After every 18-year peak, an economic downturn followed.

I first discovered the cycle in The Power in the Land. It’s a book by British economist Fred Harrison that came out in 1983. It shows that land speculation is what causes economic crashes.

That changed my life. I saw that you could start making decent forecasts using Harrison’s insights.

As it turned out, roughly two decades later, Harrison was one of the first people to predict the 2008 global financial crisis.

In 2005, he commented…

The next property market tipping point is due at the end of 2007 or early 2008… The only way process can be brought back to affordable levels is a slump or a recession.

And that’s how it played out…

March Marked a Bottom for Stocks

The 18.6-year real estate cycle is not the only cycle at work in the markets.

I know last month was crazy – with the collapse of three U.S. banks… the emergency rescue of Swiss investment banking giant Credit Suisse… and yet another rate hike from the Fed. But I believe it marked a bottom for stocks.

Thirty years ago, in 1993, stock markets made a low in March.

Sixty years ago, in 1963, the market made a low in March.

And 90 years ago, in 1933, stock markets made a March low.

Few will take the time to understand these cycles. But for those who do, it can be enormously profitable.

I’ll have more for you tomorrow… including the link between the real estate cycle and the stock market… and why most mainstream pundits are wrong about what’s coming next for both stocks and real estate.



Phil Anderson
Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson

P.S. Thanks to my research into the 18.6-year real estate cycle – and its relationship to stocks – I’ve been able to forecast every major market move of the last 34 years.

And I’ve built my fortune predicting, instead of reacting, to markets.

And now, I’m out with my prediction for markets in 2023… a unique period of panic I’m calling “The Eleventh Hour.”

So, next Tuesday, April 11, at 10 a.m. ET, I’ll be airing an exclusive interview I’ve recorded with The Daily Cut editor, Chris Lowe. Chris and I get into the details of The Eleventh Hour… and how you can prepare.

Go here to automatically sign up.