Whether you like it or not, President Joseph Robinette Biden will still be in the White House a year from now.
Given our mostly conservative audience, we know that won’t be a popular take.
But we say it as we see it.
We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: President Donald John Trump doesn’t have a chance of winning in November.
We’ll explain why and how to prepare your investments for Biden’s second term below…
Here’s How “Election 2024” Shapes Up
If you’ve watched conservative commentary online over the past week, you’ve seen the euphoria.
Sure, there was an initial disappointment (to put it mildly) after the guilty verdicts in New York.
But that faded away when later reports showed a President Trump fundraising event had brought in more than $54 million in a day…
And an opinion poll revealed that black voters had shifted heavily towards Mr. Trump…
Even Maureen Dowd wrote in the New York Times about how her family members were going all in on Mr. Trump this time after last week’s verdict.
Makes you wonder why Mr. Trump doesn’t arrange a guilty verdict every day. The more the better, apparently.
Except, it isn’t.
By the way, your editor takes this view despite the fact we predicted Mr. Trump’s 2016 win. We can even pinpoint the exact moment when we knew he would win.
That was the renowned Al Smith Dinner. You probably remember it. It’s the event where presidential candidates ‘roast’ each other, usually in a good-natured way.
It started that way in 2016 when Mr. Trump gave his presentation… but then soon veered into direct attacks on Hillary Clinton.
It was that moment when your editor figured that Trump wasn’t about to play nice for the establishment cronies… he was going to stay “in character” regardless of the audience.
It worked.
As for 2020, we had our doubts about Mr. Trump’s prospects for re-election when he held a rally in Michigan. As we recall, they positioned a bunch of first responders behind him.
Mr. Trump did his usual schtick. It was crass, blunt… and funny. But you could see the reaction from the folks behind. It was too crass… it was too blunt… and they mostly didn’t find it funny.
In short, in 2016, “Middle America” gave Mr. Trump a chance. They figured they had nothing to lose.
In 2020, they’d had enough of the drama. He’d had his chance.
This time, Middle America, despite the state of inflation, doesn’t want the drama again.
Sure, the conservatives are excited… and sure, President Trump is likely right about it being a “witch hunt” to get him…
And even legal experts on CNN and MSNBC – prior to the verdict – thought the prosecution had a lousy case.
But guess what? Most of Middle America doesn’t watch Fox News… they don’t watch conservative commentators on YouTube… they don’t even watch MSNBC or CNN.
They watch the evening news on network TV. And with that, they hear the message the mainstream wants its audience to hear – that Mr. Trump is a felon.
That audience isn’t going to give him the chance they gave him in 2016.
Bottom line, in 2024, Mr. Trump loses… and it likely won’t even be close.
So, what the heck does all this have to do with the markets and investing?
Exactly this: We still expect the market to be mostly flat leading up to the election.
So far this year, the S&P 500 is up around 11%. Our bet remains that will be the peak until election day.
Which means, considering where the market is today – near that peak – we suggest switching out of some stocks and tucking more away in cash.
But once the election results are in – and it confirms a second term for President Biden – you can mark that as the day the final part of the market’s “inflate-up” period begins.
Don’t be surprised to see a 5–6% up-move for the market on Wednesday, November 6. That’s where we suggest you’ll see even bigger moves for small-cap stocks and selected sectors.
Sectors such as pharma and defense contractors will be the obvious winners.
Of course, what if we’re wrong? What if Middle America confounds your editor? What if Mr. Trump retakes the White House?
Good news. It likely won’t make much difference at all to the market’s direction.
We know Mr. Trump loves spending as much as any real politician… we also know Mr. Trump loves low interest rates.
So for different reasons, the outcome will be the same. It will be the bottom of the ninth inning for stocks, leading to the market’s ultimate top in 2025.
We know there’s a reasonable chance you won’t like today’s essay. But it’s not our job to necessarily tell you what you want to hear… often it’s our job to tell you what you don’t want to hear.
Cheers,
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Kris Sayce
Editor, The Daily Cut