What’s your wildest prediction for 2020?
That was the question I put to all our Legacy Research experts just before the holidays… and their answers both amused and shocked me.
That’s what I love about these guys… No matter how long or how closely I work with them, they never fail to surprise me with their insights.
They just have a different way of looking at things. And, as we saw in yesterday’s mass interview with them, that’s one of the biggest reasons they’ve all been so successful.
So please enjoy today’s peek into the future, courtesy of all your favorite Legacy experts.
Just make sure you’re sitting down…
Wild prediction? Next year, governments will begin rolling out a new tax system based on your carbon footprint. All of your spending will be monitored and taxed based on how much fossil fuel it consumes and how much carbon it emits.
For example, they will tax your driving based on how much gas you consume per mile, raising the tax as you drive faster. Your consumption of home utilities – heat, electricity, etc. – will also be taxed… with rates rising as your consumption increases.
Air travel… food… entertainment… everything will be subject to this new tax system.
It will be imposed as a measure to Save the Planet, but its effect will be to further monitor what you do and how you spend your money… and to transfer power to the Deep State, whose apparatchiks will be able to make obscure assessments and “technical adjustments” with no need for congressional approval.
Wildest prediction and why: China invades Taiwan.
The trade war escalates into a shooting war as China chokes off Hong Kong and pushes Trump into a corner by finally taking Taiwan.
All part of more open conflict with the U.S. as the two empires pass like ships in the night.
The U.S. elects a Democrat for president.
The wild part: Nothing changes.
Oh, and gold briefly touches an all-time high of $2,180.
2020 is an election year. Maybe the most important election since that of 1860. Absolutely anything could happen – and I do mean anything.
At this point the chances are that not much of it will be good. So my prediction is that we’re all going to experience some real fear.
In 2020, people will be surprised to see interest rates go down. The value of money – cash in the bank – is almost zero… Soon it will be.
As prices continue to inch higher, people sitting on huge piles of cash will start to panic. They’ll rush to find somewhere to put it, fearing erosion.
This is not akin to the 1970s; it’s a new phenomenon created by the central bankers of the world. In the 1970s, central bankers rarely made public appearances. Even legendary Paul Volcker only made headlines during an extreme period.
These days, Fed talk dominates financial news.
Cash holders beware…
I don’t predict often, but when I do, it’s Heineken.
For 2020… Trump becomes a two-term president and impeachment hearings do zip.
China trade magically resolves right before the election.
Media stocks release record earnings. The Obama administration found them dying. Trump is the best thing for news ever.
The U.S. stock market rises another 12.5%, continuing its historic bull run… The S&P 500 hits 3,500 by the end of the year… And the bears debate the end of the world on each leg higher.
I hope their shorts aren’t too tight.
2020 will be the biggest year for initial public offerings (IPOs) since 2001.
We will see the largest number of IPO filings… We will see the largest number of IPOs… We will see the largest number of technology IPOs… We will see the largest amount of money raised in technology IPOs… All in just the next 12 months.
For the last decade, record amounts of venture capital and private equity have been invested into the technology sector. There has been so much money invested that there really wasn’t a need for these technology companies to go public. They were able to stay private for years longer than what used to be normal historically.
But the time is up.
All of these private investors have had their money tied up, in many cases for more than a decade. And they are asking for an exit, so that they can get a return on their invested capital. And that only happens one of two ways.
Either a larger technology company acquires the private company, or the private technology company has an IPO. And either way means investors have an opportunity to invest in these bleeding-edge companies for the first time ever.
Couple that with what I believe will be a strong economic market in 2020, and we’re in for an incredible year of technology investing.
My wildest prediction is the whole “climate change” pendulum starts to swing the other way.
People get sick of hearing about how they’re at fault for destroying the planet, and they revolt. They start buying gas-guzzling SUVs. They burn real wood logs in their fireplaces. And they vote in favor of building nuclear power plants in their own backyards.
The price of oil jumps above $80 per barrel. Lumber prices rally to an all-time high. And uranium finally enters the bull market that so many commodity experts have been predicting for years.
Towards the end of 2020, we’ll see the beginning of the end of the euro as we know it.
All fiat currencies are dead men walking (hello, crypto), but the euro will crack first.
Come 2021/2022, the euro will either be significantly below parity with the dollar or have lost several member states – maybe both.
China will launch a gold-backed cryptocurrency. It will be a Pearl Harbor-type surprise financial attack and will pull the rug from under the dollar.
It’s long been clear China has been overtly and covertly accumulating gold on a massive scale. It’s been busy creating alternatives to the U.S.-dominated international financial system.
Relations between the U.S. and China are at a crucial inflection point and headed south. Recently, President Xi made clear his thoughts on how crypto and blockchain are the future. If you connect the dots – which I’ve been doing in my advisory The Casey Report – this is the picture it paints.
I don’t know if this is a wild prediction, but I think President Trump will be reelected.
Three recessions in the next 10 years.
You know how you wait ages for a bus, and then three come along at the same time? That’s why.
(2010-2019 was the first calendar decade in American history that didn’t have a recession. They’re actually pretty common. One or two a decade used to be considered very normal.)
James again… We’ve come to the last day of 2019… Tomorrow, we start our third year of publishing The Daily Cut.
As you can see from our experts’ predictions, we’re entering 2020 with a mix of optimism and pessimism, which is as it should be.
The world is good and bad, so we’d be remiss in our duty if we didn’t present both sides.
But no matter what happens next year, we’ll be here to keep showing you what’s really going on in the world.
So farewell, 2019. And welcome, 2020.
Happy New Year, Daily Cut!
Regards,
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James Wells
Director
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